March 23, 2026 – For modern residents of the Levant, the “Red Sea Trough” usually brings a brief, dusty transition between seasons. But 127,000 years ago, this same weather pattern may have been the literal key to human history. 

A new study led by Ph.D. student Efraim Bril, Prof. Adi Torfstein, and Dr. Assaf Hochman from the The Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and published in Climate of the Past, reveals that during the Last Interglacial (LIG) peak, the Levant wasn’t just a dry bridge between continents, it was a dynamic more relatively wet conditions fueled by intense, localized rain. This shift in ancient weather likely provided the water sources necessary for early humans to successfully migrate “out of Africa.” 

The Last Interglacial (roughly 129,000 to 116,000 years ago) was a period of global warmth, with higher sea levels and temperatures than today. While the region was generally arid, geological “clues,” ranging from Dead Sea sediment cores to ancient cave formations in the Negev, show evidence of brief, extremely wet phases. 

“Proxy-based reconstructions indicate that during the peak of the LIG, the southern Levant experienced relatively wetter conditions,” the researchers note. But how did a desert suddenly get enough water to support a human migration? 

To solve this, Bril et al. used advanced climate models (PMIP4) to simulate how rain-bearing weather systems behaved 127,000 years ago. They focused on the two primary systems that still govern our rain today: 

• Cyprus Lows: The winter storms that bring most of Israel’s annual rainfall from the Mediterranean. 
• Red Sea Troughs: Systems that usually peak in autumn and can pull moisture from the tropics. 

The study found that during the LIG peak, these systems were roughly 20% more productive than they are in modern times. 

The most striking finding involves the southern Levant. While northern Israel and Lebanon saw more winter rain from Cyprus Lows, the arid south (areas like Eilat and the Negev) relied on a “turbo-charged” Red Sea Trough. 

The researchers discovered that this wasn’t necessarily because these storms happened more often, but because they were physically different. Essentially, the ancient Levant became wetter because a warmer atmosphere acts like a larger sponge. During the peak of the Last Interglacial, significantly higher summer temperatures increased the air’s capacity to hold water vapor. 

When a Red Sea Trough moved through the region during the year, it had access to a much larger reservoir of atmospheric moisture than it does today. This physical change in the air, rather than just a change in wind patterns, was the primary reason for the intense rainfall that transformed the southern desert into a more viable landscape. 

Beyond historical curiosity, this research provides a vital “mirror” for our future. As we face modern global warming, understanding how natural variability once transformed the Levant’s water balance is crucial for predicting future climate impacts. 

The study highlights that even in a generally dry region, specific weather types can become significantly more intense due to rising temperatures, a pattern we may already be starting to see in 21st-century projections. By integrating ancient geological “proxies” with high-tech modelling, Bril et al. have mapped the path of our ancestors and, perhaps, the weather challenges of our descendants. 

The research paper titled “Hydroclimatic variability and weather type characteristics in the Levant during the last interglacial” is now available in Climate of the Past and can be accessed here.

Researchers:

Efraim Bril¹, Adi Torfstein^1,2, Roy Yaniv^1,3, and Assaf Hochman¹

Institutions:

1. Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
2. Interuniversity Institute for Marine Sciences, Eilat, Israel
3. Center for Climate Medicine and Human Health, Gertner Institute, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel